How much the election will cost us in November, experts say

We are still waiting to see how much the November election will be expensive for us, but it seems clear that we are going to pay a lot.If you thought it was going to be an easy one, you are going wrong. We are going back to the election of 1932 in Italy where the Communist…

Published by admin inJune 21, 2021
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We are still waiting to see how much the November election will be expensive for us, but it seems clear that we are going to pay a lot.

If you thought it was going to be an easy one, you are going wrong. 

We are going back to the election of 1932 in Italy where the Communist party won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. 

It was the last election in which the incumbent president was a socialist and the election was decided by a simple majority. 

What happened? 

Well, after the election, the Social Democrats (SD) lost their majority in the legislature and went on to govern for another eight years. 

During the first term of the new government, the Socialist party won the largest number of seats, but only after a series of political scandals, including a sexual assault scandal, which brought down the new president. 

The last time Italy was this divided was the second time the Italian republic voted for a left-wing leader, in 1945, when Benito Mussolini won with 56% of the vote. 

When I came to Italy for a few weeks in 2015, I was surprised by the extent of the divisions in the country. 

In 2015, Italy was already one of the most divided countries in the world, and the political instability caused by the country’s economic downturn and the civil war in Syria, was already spreading. 

Now we are back in the same situation. 

I would have expected that the next election would be a bit more evenly split, but the situation is much worse than I thought. 

There are a lot of factors which make the elections in Italy unpredictable, and we cannot control every single factor. 

One of the reasons for this is that the party in power in Italy is always the same party, whether they are the Socialists or the Democrats, so there is no real choice for voters in Italy. 

But it is the electoral process itself which makes it so difficult for people to make an informed choice, according to a report by the OECD. 

Italy is one of only a few countries in Europe where a government has to win a majority in both houses of parliament before it can be formed. 

Therefore, even if there were an election today, there would be no guarantee that the two parties in power would win. 

So the key thing for me is to think in terms of a probability. 

For example, the chances of an election going badly for the Social Democratic Party are close to zero. 

On the other hand, if I were to predict that the Social Democrat party would lose seats, the probability that it would win would be much greater. 

However, for the party that would win the most seats, we would not be able to predict the outcome, because the probability is so high that the results of the election could have an impact on the economy, or even on the health of the country, depending on the results. 

And of course, I would not have a good picture of the outcome in Italy because the outcome of the elections is not clear, and it is very hard to predict what the next elections will look like. 

If we were to see a big shift in opinion and the outcome was clear, it would be very difficult for me to say that the election in Italy was the most expensive in history. 

Of course, this is not an entirely fair way to judge an election. 

First of all, we do not know the outcome until the last days of the campaign, so it is hard to say which party is more likely to win the election.

Also, we have to be very careful in what we say, as the results might not be known until the next day. 

This is why we use a more conservative measure, called the proportional representation. 

A more precise measure is the absolute probability, which is what we call the probability of winning, which goes up or down by one percentage point if there is a significant shift in the outcome. 

As an example, if we predict that a large number of people are going on strike on November 15, we are very confident that the outcome will be different, as there are very few people who have a strong desire to strike. 

Furthermore, the results from the last two elections are not conclusive. 

Since we do know how many seats are going in each party, and since the Socialist party has a significant majority in parliament, we can use this information to determine which party will win.

I am going to explain this probability equation in the following sections. 

How much does the election cost us? 

We know the expected number of votes will be 1.27 million, but we do NOT know how much it will cost to elect the government. 

Let us look at the probability calculation of the total number of ballots cast for each party. 

Here is how the result looks: Party Votes Voter 

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